counterfeit notes that could be contributing to terrorism, in other words a national security concern and second, to undermine or eliminate the “black economy”. There are potentially two ways in which the pre-demonetisation money supply will stand altered in the new regime: one, there would be agents in the economy who are holding cash which they cannot explain and hence they cannot deposit in the banking system. This part of the currency will be extinguished since it would not be replaced in any manner. Second, the government might choose to replace only a part of the currency which was in circulation as cash. In the other words, the rest would be available only as electronic money. This could be a mechanism used to force a transition to cashless medium of exchange. The empirical extent of these two components will be unravelled only over the next six months. These two would have different effects on the economy in the short term and in the medium term, as will be explored below. To understand the effects of these dimensions, it is important to first understand what is it that cash does in the economy? There are broadly four kinds of transactions in the economy: accounted transactions, unaccounted transactions, those that belong to the informal sector and illegal transactions. The first two categories relate to whether transactions and the corresponding incomes are reported for tax purposes or not. The third category would consist largely of agents who earn incomes below the exemption threshold and therefore do not have any tax liabilities. The uses that cash is put to for these various segments of the economy can be summarised in the form of Table 1. Finally, there would be demand for cash for illegal purposes like bribes in elections, spending over sanctioned limits, dealings in crime and corruption. If one takes a snapshot of the location of cash at any given point of time, it is difficult to predict what the breakup of the cash according to these categories would be, but it would be safe to say that each of these components would be represented in that snapshot.
Turning to the effects of demonetisation, the first major and sustained effect of demonetization would follow from the extent to which the currency is extinguished and what this currency was being used for. It is being assumed that all currency which will potentially be extinguished would be currency being used as a store of value in the first and second category of transactions in the table above. If this assumption is correct, then
the impact of extinguishing this currency would be limited. On the other hand, if the currency is used for any of the other transactions in the economy, either as a store of value or more importantly, as a medium of exchange, then the impact on the economy and the agents in the economy could be substantial. If, for instance, the extinguished cash was used as a medium of exchange in financing unaccounted income generation or income in the informal sector, demonetisation would result in these activities closing down and a corresponding reduction in the incomes and employment associated with these activities. The spillover effect would be felt by the organised sector as well since the consumption from the incomes generated would extend to the formal sector as well. The next question to ask would be: would these activities/agents choose to come within the folds of the formal sector as a result of the changed economic environment or would they remain outside or worsen the activities and would be extinguished along with the losses generated from the cash that was extinguished. The second change as discussed above, from demonetisation would arise if only a part of the currency deposited in the banks is returned to circulation as cash. This change, if it is executed, would dramatically change the economic environment in the country by forcing agents to move from using cash as a medium of exchange to using cash substitutes. This appears to be a real possibility given that the Finance Minister as well as the Governor of the Reserve Bank of India have repeatedly emphasised that agents should be moving to the use of cashless medium where there are no problems in comparison to the cash based medium. For instance, The Hindu reported that “ Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has urged citizens to switch to alternative modes of payments such as pre-paid cards, credit and debit cards, mobile banking, and Internet banking. 2. SHORT-TERM AND MEDIUM-TERM IMPACTS Very short-term impact The demonetisation, by removing 86 per cent of the currency in circulation, has resulted in a very severe contraction in money supply in the economy. This contraction, by wiping out cash balances in the economy, will eliminate a number of transactions for a while, since there is no or not enough of a medium of exchange available. Since income and consumption are intrinsically related to transactions in the economy, the above would
mean a severe contraction in income and consumption in the economy. This effect would be more severe on individuals who earn incomes in cash and spend it in cash. To a lesser extent it would also affect individuals who earn incomes in non-cash forms but need to withdraw in cash for consumption purposes, since a number of sectors in the economy still work predominantly with cash. In terms of the sectors in the economy, the sectors to be adversely affected are all those sectors where demand is usually backed by cash, especially those not within the organised retailing. For instance, transport services, kirana, fruits and vegetables and all other perishables, would face compression in demand which is backed by purchasing power. This in turn can have two effects: while it is expected that supply exceeds demand, there would be a fall in prices, however, if supply too gets curtailed for want of a medium of exchange, prices might, in fact, rise. Thus, while generally people seem to expect prices to fall, it is quite possible that prices would instead rise. Alternatively, to keep the flows going, people might take recourse to credit - both the retailers and other agents in the economy might make supplies on credit in the hope that when the liquidity status is corrected, the payments can be realised. In these cases, the price of commodities might rise instead of falling. In other words, the impact of an incremental reduction in money supply where the demand and the supply chain remain unaffected would be different from a case where there is a drastic reduction in money supply and outputs might adjust rather than the adjustment being in prices. In other words, the expectation that inflation would decline might be belied. Short-term effect with complete replacement: The short-term effect on the economy would depend on the speed with which and the extent to which the cash is replaced by the authorities. If the entire cash is replaced within a short duration of time, the effects beyond the very short term of 1-2 months might be little. But a few sectors are likely to be seriously affected. To give an example from two sectors which are supposed to have large employment effect on the economy, we can talk about agriculture, automobiles and construction. This is the sowing season for the Rabi crop in some parts of the country and the harvesting season for the Kharif crop. Most of the purchases and sales in this segment of the economy are carried out through cash. With